Sphere-Work uses strategic scenario planning to develop a future-proof HR strategy. This method, which has been used internationally for some time and is proven effective, is new in Belgium. It was created in response to the current turbulent environment and allows future potential evolutions to be linked to current realities and strategic options. We are certified in the "Oxford Scenario Planning Approach," developed by Saïd Business School (Oxford University).

Moreover, it is an inclusive, fun yet in-depth way to build or revise your HR strategy in five steps.

Step 1: Future Facts: megatrends on the labour market

We start by studying the megatrends in the labour market. We deliberately speak of megatrends: HR should not follow the latest fashion but prepare for the long-lasting trends that will have a profound impact on the labour market in the coming years.

Sphere-Work has mapped these megatrends for your team. Together with your team, we add to this overview. We then explore together the identified trends for their relevance (impact on the labour market, your organisation, and HR) and the degree of (un)certainty (how certain are we that these trends will continue).

Examples: how will labour market scarcity develop? What are the key conditions for converting technological innovations into higher productivity? How will you recruit people in the future? Which skills will become increasingly important and scarce? Will we continue to work with traditional employment contracts? ...

Step 2: Future Facts: strategic choices of your organisation

We explore your organisation's strategy: what does success depend on? How are your customers evolving? What is your organisation betting on, and what do you want to be the best at? Which environmental factors can influence or change these strategic choices? What are the choices made, and which ones still need to be made? What are the main dependencies and biggest risks?

These elements are explored together with your team for their relevance for HR (expectations towards HR, impact on HR's skills ...) and the degree of (un)certainty (what is expected of us and what might or probably is coming).

Step 3: Building possible and relevant future scenarios

Based on these "future facts", we work with your team to develop possible and relevant future scenarios. We do not try to predict the future, but develop some scenarios that, if they occur, could have a major impact. Of some elements in these scenarios, we are already seeing indications today. Almost everyone will agree on some things, while there will be less unanimity on other elements, but perhaps we will agree on their impact if they were to happen.

This may sound abstract and difficult, but our experience shows that this is both fun and surprisingly enriching for your team members. At some companies we have done this with the entire HR team, at others with a mixed group of HR and management. Initially, there is often some cold feet, but the scenarios usually come together quickly and smoothly.

Step 4: Impact analysis of the future scenarios on your organisation

Together, we examine the impact of these scenarios on your organisation, with a focus on:

• Elements that are (quasi) certain and have a major impact: We ask ourselves whether we are well enough prepared for this and what else needs to be done. We should not be in doubt about whether and when to take actions.
• Elements that are uncertain but could have a major impact: How can we build in agility so that we can move quickly if necessary? Are there certain indicators we should put in place to see such things coming faster than other companies?

Step 5: We build an HR strategy

We now know that there are things, certain or uncertain, that we had better prepare for. We can therefore ask ourselves very specific questions: what do we need to change, what changes can we influence ourselves, what steps should we take to shape those changes, what resources do we need to do so, and what knowledge and experience are required.

We work on four dimensions:

• Are our employees sufficiently aware and convinced of the necessary changes, and where and how they need to be refreshed?
• Do we have all the necessary functions and job designs to be successful in the future? How do we build the necessary skills, both at leadership and employee level? How do we ensure the necessary diversity to effectively manage future decisions and uncertainties?
• How do we ensure that our employees are deeply motivated to achieve that success?
• How do we remove barriers to success in the organisation? How does the organisation provide the right incentives and support?

We need to prioritise, establish an initial timeline and double-check with key stakeholders in the organisation ...